The IMF Forecasts A Seismic Shift In The Global Economy
The International Monetary Fund has drastically cut its growth projections for this year and 2026, warning of an unsteady economic future over escalating trade tensions.
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U.S. stocks turn higher around midday as investors try to cling to tariff optimsim and score a three-day win, despite China’s denial that it’s held trade talks with the U.S.
“Any claims about the progress of China-U.S. economic and trade negotiations are groundless and have no factual basis,” He Yadong, a commerce ministry spokesman, said. There were no ongoing talks with the U.S. over trade matters and the U.S. “should cancel all the unilateral measures on China,” He said.
Foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said reports of U.S.-China talks were “fake news.”
Aside from China’s denial, the fact that the Trump administration has moved on to tariff deals is a good sign, said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial.
“The narrative transition from tariff rates to tariff deals is an important step in the recovery of the equity market,” he said. “This change suggests we have likely moved beyond peak policy uncertainty and fear, an important piece of the market low puzzle.”
However, he warns “history reveals most bottoms are a process that often involves a retest of the initial lows. V-shaped recoveries are rare and are typically accompanied by a pivot from the Fed, an unlikely scenario given Chair Powell’s continued “patient” approach with monetary policy.”
At 11:32 a.m. ET, the blue-chip Dow inched up 0.51%, or 200.64 points, to 39,807.21; the broad S&P 500 added 1.19%, or 64.03 points, to 5,439.89; and tech-laden Nasdaq rose 1.74%, or 291.22 points, to 16,999.27. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.327%.
China’s harsh comments contradict a recently softer tone from the Trump administration over trade with China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday the U.S. has the “opportunity for a big deal” on trade, and President Donald Trump hinted earlier at a softer stance on China tariffs. Reports said Trump was considering slashing tariffs on Chinese imports in a bid to de-escalate tensions.
The Financial Times reported the White House is planning automaker exemptions for “car parts from the tariffs that Trump is imposing on imports from China to counter fentanyl production, as well as from those levied on steel and aluminum.”
Stocks rallied on Wednesday amid hopes of a thaw in the U.S.-China trade war and that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will get to keep his job. Trump said he had no intention of firing Powell but still wants the Fed to lower rates.
Economic data shrugged off
Investors mostly shrugged off this morning’s economic data, which included the slowest existing home sales since 2009. March sales fell 5.9% from February, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims rose to 220,000, matching economists’ consensus forecast and indicating that souring views on the economic outlook haven’t translated into a weaker labot market yet.
“Management teams seem to be taking a “cautious but hopeful” approach to the current situation,” said Bret Kenwell, U.S. investment analyst at tarding platform eToro. “While they may not be readily green-lighting large projects or hiring sprees, they are not yet undergoing mass layoffs either. For now, it’s constructive to see the labor market continuing to hold up despite the volatility and worries that persist due to the volatility in various markets.”
March durable goods orders soared 9.2% from February and topped economists’ forecast for up 1.6% as companies pulled forward orders to escape tariffs.
Corporate news
Google parent, Alphabet, will report earnings after the market close. Meantime, some of the biggest movers include:
- Procter & Gamble’s quarterly earnings topped analysts’ forecasts but sales missed. The maker of Tide laundry detergent also cut its full-year outlook, and its shares shed nearly 5%.
- Chipotle’s sales in the first three months of the year fell below analysts’ forecasts. The burrito chain also said same-store sales declined for the first time since 2020 and lowered the top end of its outlook for full-year same-store sales growth. Shares added 1.5%.
- Texas Instruments beat analysts’ forecasts with its first-quarter results, and shares jumped 6.5%.
- Southwest Airlines said it will cut capacity in the second half of 2025, given further signs of weaker domestic bookings this year. The carrier also pulled its full-year guidance. Its shares dipped almost 1%.
- Alaska Airlines warned of a six-percentage-point hit to revenue in the second quarter and pulled its full-year outlook due to economic uncertainty. The stock slumped 9.5%.
- American Airlines withdrew its annual outlook amid the uncertain economic outlook and warned second-quarter revenues would miss analysts’ forecasts. The airline’s shares added 2%.
- International Business Machines shares dropped more than 6% after the company said 15 of its government contracts were shelved under a cost-cutting drive by the Trump administration.
- Intuitive Surgical said its quarterly results rose but warned that tariffs could hurt its gross margin going forward. Its stock rose 3.3%.
- Boeing topped analysts’ estimates in the first three months of the year. The plane maker said China has stopped taking its aircraft amid the trade war and it was ready to send them elsewhere. Its stock inched up slightly.
- Phillip Morris raised guidance and said the popularity of its Zyn nicotine pouches boosted quarterly earnings. Shares rose fractionally.
- ServiceNow earnings in the first three months of the year beat analysts’ forecasts. Shares of the software company gained 14.68%.
- Comcast reported a larger-than-expected decline in broadband customers in the first quarter. Shares of the cable company fell about 4.5%.
- PepsiCo lowered its full-year forecast due to tariff costs and weaker consumer spending. Shares eased nearly 3%
- Merck lowered its full-year earnings outlook partly to account for recently imposed tariffs. The drugmaker’s stock slipped almost 1%.
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin eased, consolidating recent gains above $90,000.
The digital currency was last down 0.29% at $93,376.61.
Cantor Fitzgerald is launching a crypto venture with Tether and Japanese technology investor SoftBank Group to buy bitcoin — a bet that interest in the digital currency will expand while Trump’s in office.
The combined vehicle is valued at $3.6 billion, based on a bitcoin price of nearly $85,000 and Twenty One launching with more than 42,000 bitcoins, which will make it the world’s third-largest bitcoin treasury, Twenty One said.
The story was updated with new information.
Medora Lee is a money, markets, and personal finance reporter at USA TODAY. You can reach her at [email protected] and subscribe to our free Daily Money newsletter for personal finance tips and business news every Monday through Friday.
