The USD is lower versus the three major currencies – the EUR, JPY and GBP.. This video takes a look at the technicals that traders should be following to determine the bias, the risk, and targets for these three currency pairs.
EURUSD:
The EURUSD moved lower yesterday but held support at its rising 100-hour moving average, which starts today’s US session at a higher hurdle of 1.1311. Holding above this key MA level keeps the bias in favor of the buyers. A move below would tilt the bias in the short-term more to the downside, with the next key target being the support area between 1.1271 and 1.1275. Just below that, the 38.2% retracement of the recent move up from last week’s low comes in at 1.12495—a critical level to watch if the downside momentum builds.
USDJPY:
The USDJPY tested the low from last Friday at 142.07 today, and found buyers at that level, rebounding to the upside. The pair now trades between that double bottom at 142.07 and the 100-hour moving average above at 143.361. A break below 142.07 would open the door toward the next key support at the swing level near 141.67. A move above would tilt the bias marginally to the upside with work to do.
GBPUSD:
The GBPUSD broke above a swing area between 1.3221 and 1.3245, climbing to a new high at 1.3290. A break above that level would have traders eyeing the next upside target at 1.33124, followed by the 2024 high at 1.34323. On the downside, sellers would need to push the pair back below 1.3245 and 1.3221, with additional support at 1.32067—the high from two weeks ago, which served as a base before the latest move higher.
Today’s technical levels will be influenced by the upcoming U.S. retail sales report for March (see Adam’s post here), where the headline figure is expected to rise by 1.3%, and ex-auto sales are forecast to increase by 0.3%. The retail control group, which feeds directly into GDP calculations, is projected to rise by 0.6%.
Also on the economic calendar is industrial production and capacity utilization, both due at 9:15 AM ET. Expectations are for industrial production to dip by -0.2%, while capacity utilization is seen edging down to 78.0% from 78.2%. Manufacturing output is expected to rise by 0.3%, a slowdown from last month’s 0.9% gain.
At 9:45 AM ET, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its rate decision (see Adam’s preview here). The outcome is uncertain, with markets split on whether the central bank will cut rates or hold steady. Before the recent wave of tariffs, the BoC appeared poised to slow its easing cycle. However, the expected drag on growth from those tariffs has reintroduced doubt into the market.
Despite the uncertainty, the Canadian dollar has strengthened, with USDCAD falling to a low of 1.38278 on Monday—its weakest level since November 2024. The pair has since rebounded and now trades near the falling 100-hour moving average at 1.39149. That level will act as the near-term barometer: staying below keeps sellers in control. A move above could shift bias higher, with the 200-day moving average near the psychological 1.4000 level serving as a key resistance target. A break above that would be more bullish for the pair.
At 10:00 AM ET, U.S. business inventories for February are expected to rise by 0.2%, while the NAHB Housing Market Index for April is forecast to dip to 37, down from 39 in March.
At 10:30 AM, the weekly U.S. oil inventory report is due. Expectations are for a crude oil build of 0.507 million barrels, while gasoline stocks are projected to fall by -1.595 million barrels and distillate inventories by -1.180 million barrels.
The private data showed a larger than expected build in crude oil with a larger than expected drawdowns in gasoline and distillates:
The key event later in the session will be Fed Chair Powell’s speech at 1:30 PM, where he will address the economic outlook. While the Fed has often characterized tariff effects as transitory, Powell may need to acknowledge the risk that these price shocks could become more persistent—especially if inflation expectations begin to shift higher. Recent soft (i.e. survey) data from consumer and business surveys suggest that such expectations are already rising. The challenge for the Fed will be determining whether these tariffs are temporary headwinds or eventually become tailwinds for inflation and growth under the Trump administration’s policy path.
Taking a snapshot of the markets:
U.S. stocks are trading lower, with sentiment pressured by concerns in the semiconductor sector. Nvidia shares are down more than 5% in premarket trading after the company announced it would take a $5.5 billion charge due to new U.S. export restrictions requiring a license for shipping its H20 AI processors to China and other countries.
- Dow industrial average -41 point
- S&P index -43 points
- NASDAQ index -273 points
in the US debt market, yields are mixed:
- 2 year yield 3.809%, -1.9 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.952%, -1.1 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.321%, unchanged
- 30 year yield 4.779%, +0.3 basis points
