Another quiet day in the US session. US Empire Manufacturing data showed some weakness especially with the 6 month forward index falling below Covid levels indicative of the uncertainty from the new administration. However, the market is more accepting of the survey type data. There is always the chance of a headline reversing the negative trend from tariffs. Of course it could go the other way as well.
The EURUSD moved lower today on the back of comments that tariff talks were not progressing. The German ZEW data was also weaker than expectations ahead of the US open. Technically, the price decline fell below support defined by a swing level and retracement at 1.1271 to 1.1276, but stalled short of the rising 100 hour MA (at 1.1256 currently and moving higher).The low price reached 1.12634 and is currently trading at 1.1281. Sellers could not keep the momentum going…..today at least.
THe GBPUSD moved higher and traded to the highest level since October 2024 up to 1.3252, but backed off the pair is trading at 1.3229 which is still up 39 pips or 0.27% on the day.
The USDCHF was the biggest mover with a gain of 1.10% or 0.90 pips on the day. That has the price moving away from the low from Friday near 0.8100 and closer to the falling 100 hour MA at 0.82506. The high price today reached 0.8235 so far today. A move above the 100 hour MA and staying above is needed to give the buyers a small victory from a technical perspective but with other hurdles after the sharp move lower in April that has seen the price moved from 0.8850 to the low of 0.8100 on Friday in less than 2 weeks of trading.
The USDCAD ahead of the BOC rate decision tomorrow, bottomed near the low of a swing area between 1.3843 to day before bouncing higher. The key 200 day MA looms above at 1.4000 level. The price fell below the 200 day MA last week for the first time since October 2024. A move back above that moving average would disappoint the sellers.
US stock indices fell today in up-and-down trading:
- Dow industrial average fell -155.83 points -0.38% at 40368.96.
- S&P index fell -9.34 points or -0.17% at 5396.63
- NASDAQ index fell -8.32 points or -0.05% at 16823.17.
Although Nvidia did rally 1.35%, Metafell -1.87%, Microsoft felt -0.54%, Alphabet fell -1.74%, Amazon fell -1.39% and Apple fell -0.19%.
In the US debt market, yields fell modestly after trying the upside earlier today. Yesterday the 10 year fell over 10 basis points today the 10 year is down an additional 3.3 basis points. A look at your curve shows:
- 2 year yield 3.847%, +1.5 basis points
- 5-year yield 3.980%, -1.8 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.331%, -3.3 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.779%, -1.8 basis points
Looking at other instruments:
- Crude oil traded in a modest range for the second consecutive day the price trading down around $0.20 at settlement.
- Gold rose $18.07 or 0.56% to $3228.70
- Silver fell 6 cents or -0.21% to $32.28
- Bitcoin fell $-600 to $83,980
Tomorrow the Bank of Canada interest rate decision will be announced at 9:45 AM ET. The OIS market pricing is for a 45% chance of a rate cut and a 55% chance of no change. Flip a coin for a preview see Adam’s post by clicking here.
Fed chair Powell will speak at 1:30 PM ET. The market will be instead and what he has to say.
