Where Will Ethereum Be in 5 Years?

In its first five years of existence, Ethereum (ETH -2.54%) skyrocketed in value by more than 16,000% to hit an all-time high of $4,892 in November 2021. Today, it remains the second-largest cryptocurrency in the world, with a market cap of almost $200 billion.

In many ways, Ethereum is at a crossroads right now. For the year, it’s down more than 50% and has been a market underperformer for several years. With that in mind, here’s a closer look at where the cryptocurrency could be headed next.

Two competing visions for Ethereum

The good news is that there’s a strategic roadmap for Ethereum. Every year, the Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin lays out the key priorities for the blockchain and provides an update on key technological initiatives from the crypto’s developers. Investors actually have a pretty good idea of what Ethereum is emphasizing, unlike other cryptocurrencies.

Based on Buterin’s October commentary, a key priority is to boost the scalability and throughput capacity of the Ethereum blockchain. The ultimate goal is to hit a processing speed of 100,000 transactions per second. That type of speed is breathtakingly fast and would silence the critics who say that blockchain competitors are passing Ethereum by in terms of speed and efficiency.

However, there’s a big debate happening right now within the Ethereum community about how to put all that speed, efficiency, and scalability to work.

On one hand, you have those who think that Ethereum should focus on projects that benefit humanity, such as new blockchain-based voting systems to guarantee election integrity. On the other hand, you have those who insist that Ethereum should stick to what it does best — decentralized finance (DeFi) — and focus on ways to help people make money with crypto.

Earlier this year, Buterin commented publicly, saying that he was growing increasingly discouraged about the way people are using Ethereum. He even likened Ethereum to a “degenerate casino,” in which people are essentially gambling on meme coins and speculating in digital assets like non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Instead of collaborating for the common good of humanity, these people are engaging in adversarial “player versus player” (PvP) behavior.

The Trump White House and Ethereum

The wild-card factor in all this is the Trump White House. Members of the Trump family — including President Donald Trump himself — have publicly spoken in favor of Ethereum. And the Trump White House made the crypto a cornerstone of the new U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile, so there’s very strong support for Ethereum at the highest levels.

Moreover, a crypto company affiliated with Trump — World Liberty Financial — has been a strong proponent of Ethereum, even going so far as to make high-profile purchases of the crypto both before and after the inauguration. Ethereum fits into World Liberty Financial’s vision for DeFi, which calls for breaking down the barriers between traditional finance (i.e. Wall Street) and blockchain finance.

It’s impossible to predict the next moves of the Trump White House, but based on the above, it appears that Trump’s crypto advisors would prefer that Ethereum take the second of the two paths available, embracing DeFi and its potential to revolutionize the world of finance. 

What is the investment thesis for Ethereum?

Bitcoin is easy to explain — proponents say it’s a store of value, so-called digital gold. But what exactly is Ethereum? It’s much more than just a digital currency — it’s also a network and an ecosystem and the key building block for everything that can be built with blockchain technology.

But none of those explanations roll off the tongue like “digital gold.” And they inevitably lead to wonky technological explanations of how Ethereum works and how it generates value.

That might explain why money continues to flow out of the new spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Institutional investors no longer buy the investment thesis for Ethereum, and retail investors are tired of the crypto dropping in value. There are plenty of blockchain competitors — including Solana, Avalanche, Sui, and Cardano — and all of these now appear to be grabbing market share from Ethereum.

Here’s my take: The price of Ethereum is going to continue to stagnate until the cryptocurrency decides what it wants to be when it grows up. The first decade was amazing, and Ethereum deserves full credit for everything it has achieved. At one point, TIME magazine named Buterin the “prince of crypto.” It seemed like only a matter of time before Ethereum passed Bitcoin to become the crypto king.

The next five years will be critical for Ethereum. Currently, it sits 67% below its all-time high in November 2021. To regain that level, the crypto will need a lot to go right. Most importantly, it will need to decide which competing vision for the future it wants to embrace.